The Future Fund has started preparing its $205 billion portfolio for a financial environment with higher inflation and warned other investors will need to follow its lead.
Speaking at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference on Friday, the Future Fund’s chief investment officer Ben Samild said it had traded around $65 billion worth of its portfolio for assets with better protection against what is expected to be a long-term inflationary environment.
“We thought we needed to start building a portfolio that was more resilient to that world. So that means we’ve done about $65 billion of investing in things that we thought were less inflation resilient to things that are more inflation resilient,” he said.
Both Samild, and Bridgewater Associates’ investment veteran Atul Lele, warned that it is a very different environment compared to the recent decades of disinflation and low-interest rates, which favoured equities.
“Over the last 40 years, you’ve seen a pro corporate, pro liquidity, pro growth, disinflationary environment that’s been hugely favourable to growth-sensitive assets, to equity-centric type portfolios,” Lele said.
“And when we play the tape forward and think about, ‘okay, what’s actually going to happen from here?’ All of those dynamics are shifting … and that’s the big risk that we see out there.”
One of his big warnings has been the risk of a spike in US bond yields if their government has trouble finding buyers of its debt as the US budget deficit soars.
The US Federal Reserve and US commercial banks have been big buyers of US debt over the past few years, but they are both stepping out of the market.
“That’s why we say the big problem is that you’ve got all of this (debt) issuance coming, and you don’t have a natural buyer there, at least not at the current level of yields,” Lele said.
“It becomes an issue when investors are going to be demanding higher and higher yields to go and actually, to go and actually fund that US deficit.”
For the Future Fund this could be advantageous if it is able to get a strong yield from something as relatively safe as US government bonds. And even higher yields from quality private debt.
“If I had to pick one thing tomorrow (to invest in) it would be reasonably safe, asset-backed or even investment-grade lending where I can get low double-digit returns at very, very little risk,” Samild said.
It also means investors should be aware of the benefits of staying with the high cash yields, said Lele.
“When we think about what’s available for investors - in just staying out of assets and staying in cash - it looks pretty attractive today in cash. I don’t think investors right now are being sufficiently incentivised to move away from it.”
Even now, Australian investors can get an interest rate over 5 per cent from savings accounts which are effectively risk-free due to the government guarantee of deposits.
Markets this week enthusiastically welcomed news that US inflation was softer than expected last month, which fuelled bets the US Federal Reserve may be done with interest rate hikes.
This article was originally posted by The Sydney Morning Herald here.
Licensed by Copyright Agency. You must not copy this work without permission.
Grounds, Fowler, and Weiss set up the Australian version, the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference in 2016, with the first meeting at the Sydney Opera House.
Healthcare stocks – from sleep apnoea giant ResMed, to cancer diagnostic biotech Telix Pharmaceuticals – were recommended at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference on Friday.
Munro Partners partner Kieran Moore believes London-listed money transfer company Wise could see its share price soar 50 per cent by 2025, as its problem-solving business model gains traction while benefiting from higher interest rates.
Institutional investors such as super and pension funds are investing in private equity at “exactly the wrong time”, a top hedge fund manager has warned, as sharply higher interest rates threaten a wave of bankruptcies.
The world’s highest-profile tech investor, Cathie Wood, might be bruised but she is certainly bullish. Nor is she holding back. “I have always hated searching on Google,” she says of the search giant.
Cathie Wood has rightly called several of the big themes driving markets this year. But the world’s most divisive investor says we’re thinking about AI in the wrong way.
Tech investment guru Cathie Wood is still a big believer in bitcoin, so it was fitting that she chose Grayscale Bitcoin Trust as her stock pick for the 2023 Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference.
Speaking at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference on Friday, the Future Fund’s chief investment officer Ben Samild said it had traded around $65 billion worth of its portfolio for assets with better protection against what is expected to be a long-term inflationary environment.
When Damian Lewis, the actor who plays the ruthless hedge fund boss in the drama series Billions was looking for inspiration, he sat down with Daniel Loeb.
The US financial sector is not without its problems but Ravi Chopra backs Webster Financial Corporation as his stock pick for the 2023 Sohn Hearts & Minds Investment Leaders Conference.
It might be time to look beyond big name, overpriced Wall Street stocks that could struggle to deliver growth. That was the message from top fund managers, company founders and super funds at the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference.
A year on from the start of ChatGPT, the Future Fund hasn’t decided how to play this phase of the AI revolution but is open to the possibility it will be a major boost to productivity.
The Future Fund, Australia’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, has been sounding the alarm on the developed world’s rising levels of debt, the prospect of higher inflation, and the risks in the bond market for longer than most.
Most hedge fund managers brag about their wins and shy away from their losses – Martin Hughes is not most hedge fund managers.
Bryce and Ren from Equity Mates are joined by Ashish Swarup is a Portfolio Manager and Investment Analyst at Aikya Investment Management
Australia’s best stock pickers have just eight minutes to convince the country’s top money managers they have found an investment gem that the market has overlooked.
Daniel Loeb of Third Point says the way companies are dealing with the high cost of debt is delivering new opportunities.
When genomic scientist Daniel MacArthur had the opportunity to set up a new Centre for Population Genomics in Australia in 2019, he jumped at the chance to return home after 12 years living overseas.
European leisure and luxury – a designer handbag, a last-minute flight to Monte Carlo, a stay in a five-star hotel – is where many choose to spend their hard-earned cash. For Sharif el Khazen, it’s where he makes it.
Mining stocks are poised to rise amid tight supply for key commodities such as copper, nickel and uranium, says Terra Capital founder Jeremy Bond.
The culture at Ray Dalio’s massive hedge fund has been a source of intrigue, and with a new book, controversy. Atul Lele says it’s made him a better investor.
Global growth fund manager Munro Partners will have a difficult task choosing a single company to tip to an audience of industry heavyweights at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference.
Sheila Patel says it’s time for the venture capital sector to “grow up” and higher rates will help do that. VC firms need to think differently about how they invest.
Melbourne scientist Misty Jenkins has had a long-time interest in immunology. But it was a neuroscientist friend who urged her to focus her skills on seeking a cure for brain cancer.
Tom Naughton is Managing Partner and CIO at Prusik Investment and speak with Equity Mates ahead of his appearance at the Hearts and Minds conference.
A true contrarian investor, Chris Kourtis can find himself sounding a lot like a bull when in the company of bears, and there’s a lot to be bearish about at the moment.
As soon as the three musketeers [Guy Fowler, Matthew Grounds and Gary Weiss] spoke to me I said ‘stop’. They said ‘we haven’t finished’. And I said, ‘I’m in’. We invested $10 million in Sohn Hearts and Minds. So substantial enough for a young fellow like me.
Famed hedge fund manager Dan Loeb has been named as one of the headline acts for next month’s Sohn Hearts & Minds philanthropic investment conference to be held in Sydney. Mr Loeb, 61, has built a reputation as a fierce shareholder activist and oversees $US11.7 billion ($18.5 billion) at New York-based Third Point.
When Ravi Chopra reveals his stock pick at the prestigious Sohn Hearts & Minds conference at the Opera House in Sydney next month, it could well be a short bet on a US bank.
Bryce and Ren from Equity Mates are joined by Rikki Bannan, Executive Director and Portfolio Manager at IFM Investors.
Last year, Ravi Chopra was travelling through Europe to shop his latest short idea to potential investors. "Financials are really all in the weeds," Ravi Chopra shared with The Australian Financial Review. "It’s all about numbers, it’s about modeling. It’s not just about looking at earnings reports, but also diving into regulatory data.
“Healthcare is often viewed as a stable, defensive sector to invest in, but in small caps that hasn’t necessarily proven to be the case,” she says in an interview with The Australian ahead of her appearance as a stock tipper at the Sohn Hearts & Minds conference in Sydney next month.
According to Dr Attia - who will speak at the Sohn Hearts & Minds in Sydney next month - nothing is completely random. He has built a career unearthing about what fuels a long life and shared his knowledge in the bestselling book Outlive: The Science & Art of Longevity.
Angela Aldrich bet against Treasury Wine Estates at the top of the market; now the Bayberry Capital founder is preparing to make her next big call.
After a decade of easy money pushing equity markets in one direction, Wall Street hedge fund manager Ricky Sandler says the return of volatility and higher interest rates is seeing money return to long-short strategies.
When New York-based hedge fund manager Ricky Sandler arrived in Australia a year ago to spend time with his son who was studying in Sydney, he didn’t expect to become the reigning champion of a philanthropic investor conference.